One child no more:
Yes, if you must know, I use that title to try to be cute.  It sort of has a double meaning.  And the one child policy in China has not been changed, but it might be.  (Monks without a temple ECONOMIST vol. March 15, 2013 page 45)  There have been organizational changes in China that just might foreshadow the end of the policy.

I rather doubt it.  That policy has been in place while the absolute size of the work force in China has stopped growing and started to fall.  I don’t know the numbers, but since soldiers tend to be younger on average than workers it seems to me that the number of men of military age must now have been falling for some time.  That must be very unusual for a rising power.  I suspect if they thought they could do something about that the leaders there would.

But I doubt they can.  The results of trials have, if I remember right, not been encouraging.  Minority groups are excluded from the rule.  I think that’s because the minority groups still have a birthrate that is not embarrassingly low.  So the rule is there to cover a profound weakness.  It was put into place after the birth rate had already fallen.

I could be wrong on this one.  In every other country, once the birth rate drops below two per woman the age at first marriage starts up.  But the age at first marriage in China has not budged.  So maybe the cause is different.  I doubt it.  But just maybe.

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