Letter to Japan:

This is what I wanted to write to the prime minister of Japan; unfortunately there is a limit on the size of a letter sent from the public, so I had to cut it down. This is the unedited version.

July, 2017

His Excellency Shinzō Abe

Prime Minister of Nippon koku, State of Japan

Your Excellency:


I recently got around to reading a note from a friend, who directed me to “Japan Needs More People,” an article in Bloomberg News April 17, 2017.  The note that Japan, like rich countries generally, face a demographic problem:  there are not enough babies.  The letter appears to be well thought through and well intended, but the final advice is – predictably – exactly wrong. 

Fertility, in the absence of drug treatment, turns out to depend on kinship (of the couple and of their ancestors) AND NOTHING ELSE.  Specifically, “choice” plays no part once mate selection has occurred and kinship issues are fixed in place.  The unborn do not seem to have many friends, but from a policy perspective a generation or two of the unborn is as important as the entire work force; fertility should be the top priority.  The bottom line seems to be that for the highest number forof grandchildren one must marry third cousins (as defined in the Helgason article that will be referenced).  Anything else amounts demographically to killing babies; that sounds shocking because it is indeed shocking.    

Now consider immigration.  Essentially no third cousins will enter.  Anything past 9th cousin will, obstinately maintained for a few generations, result in extinction of a population.  I shall offer the proof soon, but consider the problem even in the absence of fertility issues.  If the government puts me out of my house – without paying me – I shall somehow put my life back together.  The idea that only a small percentage of the population is so abused offers cold comfort.  Put me out of my country, and my life is wrecked.  Yet that is what immigration means.  It is a wonder that any government has ever survived a policy admitting any immigration at all.  But of course it is far worse than that.

It happens because greedy men think there is profit in it.  Now just suppose somebody rounds up your entire family and offers you a deal; you name any amount of money and in return for that you agree to have all your relatives shot dead.  You would not accept such a deal; in fact you would shun any monster who would accept.  Yet that is precisely the bargain of immigration-for-economic-growth.  No wonder it is not popular. 

I promised proof.  It is on a preprint server at http://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/05/08/135327 where you can see and download the pdf file.  This needs to be read carefully except my own experimental results at the end.  They have yet to be judged by the referees at Genetics.  But the bulk of the article is air tight logic based on articles in prestige journals.  That part of my article and each of the supporting references need the closest scrutiny.  As I said, nothing could be more important. 

Then comes the question of what to do.  You have a country to save.  The quickest and cheapest approach would be to look at your records and assure yourself that the Helgason article about Iceland gives the truth about Japan.  If not, then we are all fortune’s fools.  Or you can proceed directly to drama:  Start a study of married couples; to enter the study, a couple must be of child bearing age, have competent expected fertility from a medical standpoint, agree to marry and live together and regularly report pregnancies, children and any problems.  In return they get twenty years tax free; limit it to say 1,000 couples.  I fully expect that within two or three months you will find so many babies that it will become a rage throughout the land. 

Maximum population growth is not desirable in the long run.  Right now you have a crisis; later you can reduce recommended kinship to maybe fifth or sixth cousins.  It will take some looking at.  Working from my paper, if I am right, it should be able to find the methyl markers that are in immediate control of fertility and make more rational suggestions.

Nobody has ever tried this.  In the West civilizations (and in the far East dynasties) simply fall for lack of babies.  Bring it off and you should properly be hailed as the greatest hero ever; you might find yourself periodically washing the feet of the poorest of the poor and any political enemies you can find just to keep yourself modest.  Seriously, this would be a wonderful thing.  Looking at the numbers, it looks like it is too late to rescue Sweden or Germany.  But I suspect there is still time for Japan. 

There is a confounding issue involving folic acid that we can discuss as you gear up for the challenge. 

Best of luck.  Nobody doubts your courage.


Linton Herbert

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