April 17, 2019
To be posted on Nobabies.net
William Morris Endeavor Entertainment
(Talent and Literary Agency)
9601 Wilshire Blvd.
Beverly Hills, CA 90210-5213
Phone: (310) 285-9000
I have long taken an interest in your YouTube productions and generally feel sympathetic although you do not touch upon what I regard as a supremely important issue, to which I have dedicated myself for some thirty years. Perhaps I can win you.
Not so long ago you were conducting an interview and were repeatedly asking, “What is your evidence?” That gives me a warm feeling.
For me evidence is this: I plan out making a series of observations, laying out in writing what I shall measure, make hundreds or thousands of observations recording as I go, look for a pattern, change just one thing, make many more measurements, look for a change in the pattern and gauge whether any change is at least several standard deviations strong. If so, I will believe it. It is all right if somebody else or a team goes through the same steps so long as it all gets published in a prestige journal, receives no serious challenge and seems in keeping with what I already know.
Hold your hat. The issue is that on present course there is evidence that human fertility will fall to zero and remain there and that this will happen this century. Of course, as a knowledgeable person you are quite aware that this is the opposite of the usual doom and gloom which has us multiplying until we destroy the environment. There are plenty of other sources of fear porn such as nuclear war, returning ice age with agricultural collapse, giant volcanoes, impacts from space, epidemics, the rise of the machines and enslavement of the world by the super-rich through globalization. But I am the one with evidence.
Ok, it gets worse. About a hundred years ago there was bad blood in the science world between the geneticists and the evolutionists. Seriously. Then somebody came up with the “modern synthesis,” which holds that evolution consists of natural selection favoring the best genes; the corollary was that the bigger and more diverse the population the more raw material evolution has to work with so the better. A grand mix should breed the super race. I scarcely need point out the breeding super races has led to bad stuff. I have never found what I consider evidence that any “race” has any advantage over another.
Worse still, despite general agreement on the modern synthesis, it is failure to marry cousins (certainly closer than 9th cousins) that will drive a human random mating population to extinction in a few generations. And we are getting close. The more socially mobile, the productive middle class, are likely to go first and when we lose our high-tech civilization, we cannot feed more than a couple billion at best and things will not be the best. BTW how distant a couple are in their descent is only significant out to 10 generations; the other side of town is no different from the other side of the world; once one starts breeding out it just depends on continuing for a few generations.
Worst of all, this is not just unknown. It is very hard to get it through people’s heads. Some days I wonder whether outbreeding destroys people’s ability to reason abstractly. I can make a case that outbreeding increases autism spectrum disorder, but the evidence is not up to my own standards.
The enclosed DVD (Word, Windows 10) has the evidence. The file “collection” has the short version, “Grand summary fertility” is more expanded, and “Hans movie” is drawn from gapminder.com, showing country after country having its fertility fall below replacement and then age of first marriage rising inexorably toward menopause.
Go over it. If you have the slightest doubt, get in touch with me; you need not be polite as this is so important. Perhaps you can throw your energy into warning the world. It may be this is an idea whose time has come; witness the rise in populism, although populism will not save us. It may move us a couple of orders of magnitude toward safety. Five to go.
M. Linton Herbert MD