Open letter again to Professor Nye, much appreciated:
I have received a prompt and gentle reply from Professor Nye acknowledging my own letter and indicating he tries never to make a prediction more that 25 years out, so which I have answered,

Professor Nye

Subject: Many thanks.  I’ll drop a note in a year then.

Dear Professor Nye:
Many thanks for your note, so much appreciated at this end.  I think your reluctance to make prediction more than 25 years out is most prudent.  I regard my own as bordering on madness, but the numbers do lead that direction.  Meanwhile closer at hand let me formally predict that over the next year the rapid fall in the fertility of Singapore will continue and that country will be joined by one or two more prosperous countries where a birth rate that appears superficially to have stabilized somewhat below replacement will go into abrupt and catastrophic decline.  If I am able to I shall get the numbers together in a year and let you know. 

I’d predict global panic over the issue by 2020, but I do not expect to be around to apologize when I’m proved wrong.

Thanks again,


Linton Herbert 

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