Club of Rome
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8400 Winterthur
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from Linton Herbert   
population collapse

My understanding is that you are an informal organisation (sic) of individuals who share a common concern for the future of humanity and strive to make a difference.  I, in contrast, am an independent researcher pursuing the issue of kinship and fertility with no support.  Inevitably what I have to say is far from the mode.

If we continue our present course, the day will come when there are no more human babies.  That dire prediction must be tempered with the fact that my data are not exhaustive.  But if there is to be a surviving population it is invisible on the scale at which I have been working. 

I recently gave a lecture to the Triple Nine Society, a club of people with IQ’s in the 99.9th percentile, the largest society in the world with that high a requirement.  Here is a link to my talk.
But let me start in a different place.  If you go to they will let you set up a graph with age at marriage on the vertical axis and total fertility on the horizontal.  I shall attempt to attach a movie of what happens over the past few decades, but if I fail you can do it yourself.  My movie is rather out of focus, which is another reason to go straight to the horse.  I have highlighted Germany and Sweden.

In 2005, when the data end, the age of first marriage for women in Sweden was high and rising and should reach 40 in 2026.  At that point birth rate will drop to zero, holding in mind my earlier caveat.  The other rich countries have an unsustainably low and rather variable birth rate, but all show the identical rise in age at marriage.  I do not see human physiology changing drastically in the next ten years.  That last woman to give birth is already among us. 

Run the data.  I can see no country where fertility has fallen below two where it then recovers nor one where the age at marriage rate, once rising, ever slows or stops, much less reverses.  China is an exception.  Age at marriage does not rise.  But I fear that the prevalence of marriage goes down. 

As the lecture indicates, with a single exception (England, and it resulted in the Industrial Revolution) no civilization lasts significantly more than 300 years (or no dynasty in the cases of China and Japan).  Our present civilization is American dominated and that means it goes back roughly to 1776.  That means we should go down the siphon in 2076 at the latest.  At that point the youngest person in Sweden, and I suspect the youngest person who is productively middle class in any country, however poor, will be 50 years old.  I’m an old geezer (so be sure to quiz me soon; who knows how long I’ll last?) and at age 50 I recon I could have wrestled a bear.  But that is largely because I didn’t abuse myself that much.  They told us at Harvard Medical School that the average student would die in his fifties, and elsewhere I’ve heard that Russian men, keelboat men, NFL football players and professional athletes die at about the same age.  Do you see the handwriting on the wall yet? 

That’s what the original “handwriting on the wall” was, of course.  Daniel and some other Hebrew children had been collected and trained to be administrators.  That’s high status work and you would expect the administrators then current would have wanted it for their own children.  The only explanation had to be that there were none.  The first word, Mene, tells it all.  “Count them, Belshazzar.  The Persians are at your gate, and how many do you have that are not helpless old men?”  He lost sphincter control. 

So look over the lecture with care.  Obviously the rise in age at marriage is a post-zygotic process (that’s right.  There’s evidence aplenty in the lecture that choice plays no part; only kinship permits fertility.), and if you follow the reasoning (and I hope I’m wrong) in the lecture after the UN numbers you will see that we do not have ten years to shuffle our feet.  The rich world and the in-between world are already write-offs.  We have just a cohort of a few years among the poorest of the poor – the world of murdering children for witchcraft that didn’t happen until they saw Harry Potter and realized that if adults could be witches, so could children, the world of murdering any homeless stranger that comes through town, the world of female circumcision – among such is our only hope for a future with children.  They must realize the need for kinship; else the owl shall make its home in the halls of the Caesars. 

If I can help in any way, do let me know.  This is my whole life, as indeed it should be the whole life of anybody with sufficient concern for the future of humanity to join an organization. 


M. Linton Herbert MD

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