October 6, 2018


The Golden One

Dear Golden One,
A bit over 40 years ago I spent two months studying diagnostic radiology in Lund; they were the happiest days of my life, and I assure you I have had a very happy life, beginning with the happiest childhood I have ever known anybody to have.  So it has been with great dismay that I have witnessed at a distance the changes in Sweden you have seen up close and we must share that pain. 

The biggest problem with migration is worse than you or the Dalai Lama or the average American Black suspects although all are opposed absolutely.  Immigration will eventually reduce the birth rate to zero, and it is quite problematic whether there is time left in which to prevent that.  Obviously you are doing nobody any good in the long run to offer him money of whatever amount contingent on killing all his babies in the long run; accepting immigration is no favor to the immigrant. 

I have the mechanism and data put together on a DVD.  It does no good for me to tell you something you do not believe unless I have proof, which I do and which I wish to send you.  Call me Cassandra.

Now to explain the mechanism and bring aboard the evidence.  After you understand it, will seem childishly obvious.   I would like to send you that DVD that holds evidence and references, but I have no snail mail address for you.  If a friend with a mailbox is not available, here is a brief summary of what you would be getting into on the DVD:
The lessons are available as lectures http://nobabies.net/YouTube%20links.html and scripts http://nobabies.net/movie%20scripts.html and the information on the video on gapminder.com .

Here is the pitch, so think hard: (Skipping the first lesson,) when a new environmental niche appears, the first animal to occupy it has an advantage like that of an army occupying a fort that another army cannot even locate; selection is a race.  During the competition, if one animal can divide into two species, one of them can retain the legacy niche while the other exploits the new one; speciation is a race.  Say it takes 2,000 generations of separation for two populations to become two species.  The actual number doesn’t matter.  Now a chromosome or critical part in one population cannot function effectively with its opposite number in the other population.  Now (alert) a population rises to 2,000 so there are 4,000 copies of each chromosome.  The chance of a chromosome winding up in the same animal as that chromosome’s nearest kin is about 1 in 4,000.   In 2,000 generations the whole population dies because no two chromosomes are closely enough related to its opposite number to be able to function

Since extinction of the fittest is not what we see, there is very strong selective pressure for some mechanism to exist that tends to keep a population at some middling size.  In lesson 3, that mechanism is shown in action by a team led by Richard Sibly.  There is a rest population size, below which fertility rises rapidly and above which fertility falls slowly.  In lesson 4, the Sibly curve is shown to be in action in Iceland and in lesson 5, in action in Denmark, where it is found that once kinship issues (between a couple and among their ancestors) are taken into account, there is absolutely no effect of income or education on family size.  The notion of choice of family size being possible after choice of mate has been made is superstition. 

Run the video or check out gapminder.com, graphing birth rate against age of marriage for women for each country, with fifty years of experience for the whole world showing how fertility of every country falls to below replacement and then age at first marriage rises inexorably toward, and eventually to, menopause.  In the past few years sub-Saharan Africa has broken that mold.  (Economist vol. 428 no. 9110 September 22, 2018 Not So Fast page 12, Babies are Lovely, but … page 40 and Growing up too Early page 42.) “The fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa is dropping about half as quickly as it did in Asia or Latin America when families were about the same size.”  This seems not to have happened anywhere in the fifty years to 2005.  http://nobabies.net/Terror%206%20UN%20numbers%20video%20script.html  This seems to be driven by resurgent tribalism and child brides, both of which restrict mating choice, and is not so bad a thing as we are going to need some babies as long as we wish to survive, and the rich and middling countries seem to be on the way out. 

It would seem proper, once you have run the lessons, to start screaming hysterically, but I should caution you.  As Horror without Evidence (which I include for morbid interest) suggests, there is reason to suspect that after a number of generations of outbreeding, accumulated change might induce counter-productive changes in the thinking and feeling of the victims.  What is not mentioned is that among these, might be the impulse to hate what I have just explained and hate the exponent even more.  Decades of bitter experience support the idea, but I have no idea how selection might induce such a censor. 

Air tight borders are a necessary but insufficient step toward breaking up into communities of about 100 to 150 families of relatives, the only realistic way we can survive. 

Linton Herbert

Home page.