Turkey in a bind(while Israel escapes one):
The Economist (as I have said, only they seem to care) has lead of an article on fertility (Breaking the Baby Strike, Economist vol. 416 no. 8948 July 25, 2015 page 47) with the mention of Turkey.  The article is the usual litany of doom and gloom.  Every rich country in the world is having too few babies for long term survival except Israel (where even considering the Jews alone the birth rate is about 3 per woman; if you thought, as I once did, that the Jewish majority there was about to vanish, think again; see http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4058/israel-demographic-miracle) .  The article goes on and on about how money plays a part in Europe.  Here is a graph:

From Breaking the Baby Strike, Economist vol. 416 no. 8948 July 25, 2015 page 47
If you are accustomed to looking at the clean, sharp-edged graphs of my own data, you will notice that the points are almost random but with a line going jauntily through them.  The article, indeed, concedes that there is little correlation between how much you spend on child welfare and what your fertility is, and interpretation is difficult.  Maybe if they had thrown Singapore and South Sudan in there the line would have been quite different. 

Considering Turkey again, the birth rate has gone below the magical 2.1 per woman, (http://www.ibtimes.com/turkey-high-kurdish-birth-rate-raises-questions-about-future-705488) which is replacement and the rate that will ultimately yield a stable population, the only good kind.  Meanwhile the Kurds in Turkey are having four babies per woman. 

So Turkey now faces the time of “demographic time bomb” that Israel once did.  The president of Turkey is hoping to get the birth rate among Turks up, but that is seldom possible, Israel being a remarkable exception and as it were a beacon of hope to all those other rich countries.  I wonder how they did it. 

I should think it would be prudent of President Erdogan to partition his country now, while he can do it on his own terms rather than wait to be overwhelmed by Kurds and do it on their terms. 

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